??September 4th, the China cotton situation analysis meeting was held in Beijing. Mr. Shi Jianwei, the Executive Vice President of China Cotton Association (CCA) gave a report.

??Firstly, Mr. Shi reviewed the cotton situation in 2006/07. He said the cotton production figure of National Bureau of Statistics was 6.73 million tons, but the figure confirmed by some other governmental departments was 7.1 million tons. However, there are still some problems about Xinjiang's output. By the end of July, a total of 2.6 million tons had been delivered out of Xinjiang through the railway system, the local consumption is 450,000 tons and there are some state reserves, that means the total production of Xinjiang might have exceeded 3 million tons last season. Therefore, the output might be more 800,000 tons than the official figure.

??After that, Mr. Shi analysed the situation in 2007/08. He said cotton production will equal to the previous season and cotton prices will keep a relatively high level. According to the investigation by CCA, the cotton area in 2007/08 is 82.65 million mu (or 5.51 million hectares), and the crop progress appeared normal up to now, despite Jiangsu and Anhui suffered some flood. If the weather in September maintained normal, the total production this year is expected to be unchanged or even slightly higher than last year. About the price trend, Mr. Shi said the current lint price is 5-year high level, he anticipated that will keep falling. The average seed cotton procurement price in 2006 was 5.3 yuan per kilo, which converted to an equivalent lint price of 12,500-12,600 yuan per ton. The procurement price this year will be higher than last year and be reasonable at 5.6 yuan per kilo.